2016 of China machine tool market and industry can use "good" to describe, though with bitter chill in the air, but under the influence of macro-economic recovery, we have felt a surge of warmth. And that warmth in 2017, if sustained, will still experience "cold", according to economic, industrial and comprehensive analysis on import and export information, mainly from the viewpoint of industrial strategic development just below for your reference in the industry.
1. environment and health
Characteristics of China's macroeconomic trends, such as the economic slowdown, GDP growth fell to 14.2% growth from 2007 until 2016 6.7% growth at a moderate speed in the third quarter inflation pressures continue to increase, by 2016 the money supply in the third quarter was 4.3 times times throughout 2006, reached 152 trillion yuan investment marginal effect on GDP pull is waning, 2006 money supply to GDP ratio is 1.6:1, by 2016 this ratio has increased to 2.9:1 in the third quarter, and so on.
Due to economic run potential risk still exists, investment on GDP pull of marginal effect sharply weakened, future a period supply side structural reform focus task will will increased advance efforts, especially "to capacity" and "to lever" focus task to advance indicates with future macroeconomic or will in a austerity adjustment of big cycle in the, as investment pull type of machine tool industry run and development will continues to faced market down pressure increases of situation.
In recent years, final consumption, capital formation and net exports falling growth and present trends of three components. Among them, the composition of final consumption shows that are the subject of consumption of urban residents and Government, 2015 the proportion between 57.2% and 26.4%, respectively. Investments particularly in need of attention, in January-November this year while fixed asset investment growth rate decline slows, but manufacturing and machine tool purchase two segments were investment still show a marked decline in trend, only 3.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Above data indicates the market for machine tool products purchases are still substantially weakened.
Recently, the industry trend has gone through three distinct stages. That is, the
Slow down phase, other than iron and steel major segments of industrial added value growth rate than the industry average, slowly falling trend;
Steep fall in stages, the country's industrial added value growth rate fall into the range of about 6.3%, machine tool industry's General equipment manufacturing industry's growth is from the left fell to 2014 in 4%;
Differentiation phase, while the national industrial added value growth rate stable at around 6%, but the main niche growth shows obvious differentiation. Car purchase tax preferential policies with the support of contrarian upside; steel and rail investment cycle has passed and continued down general equipment, electric machinery and metal products in the real estate growth driven by slightly; hot communications-electronics manufacturing in the early renders down significantly because of the capacity is saturated.
The above situation, present traditional economic momentum is fading sharply, and instability in the new dynamics of volume, old and new energy conversion is not complete.
The international market, according to the Oxford Institute for economic research and forecasting data, international machine tool consumption and major international industrial investment in 2016 at a mild rebound after recent lows.
The domestic market, compared the distribution of investment and growth can be seen, is the traditional area is the subject of investment, investment in new manufacturing and traditional areas there is still a large gap; the second is the traditional field of general decline in investment growth and even negative growth.
2016 main niche of China machine tool market spent tendency is still downward, but by narrowing. Metal-cutting machine tool consumption is expected to decline slightly, about 16.2 billion dollars, down 5.3% metal forming machine tool consumption is expected to decline slightly, approximately $10.1 billion, down 2.9%; tools consumption expected to remain significantly decreased, about 4.1 billion US dollars, down 8.9%.
Running in 2016, China's machine tool industry boom of the index 53.9%, up 19.4% over the same period of the previous year, in the downs above, reflecting the industry's recent run recovery. Seen from the boom of the elements, and business expectations and business figures with the order and pick-up in the downs above, respectively, and 56.5% and 55.1%, but environmental and cost are still in boom and bust line, 48% and 43%, respectively, and as seen from the changing trend of the past three years not a good sign. Run the data still felt downward pressure from 2016 main segments of the machine tool industry total output and exports will show a slight downward trend.
2. industrial good and bad factors
In recent years, in order to "steady growth and structural adjustment", realize supply side structural reform and promote economic factor-driven transition to innovation-driven, issued a series of economic and industrial policy. These policies on the development of machine tool has a positive effect. In addition, according to Oxford Economic Research predicted, 2016-2020 international machine tools consumption market overall leveled off, and showed a trend of mild recovery, help us to go global strategy implementation. There are some positive elements in the domestic market. For example, accelerating the process of industrialization, integration and industrial upgrading of two huge room for growth, China became the world's second-largest economy after strong demand.
See industry many favorable factors at the same time, we should calm concerns of current and outstanding problems in industrial development for some time to come. As, market needs downturn, according to machine tool supply and demand analysis model judge, in future years user industry to capacity of efforts increased of background Xia, machine and tool total needs rendering declined of possibilities larger; run quality declined, full industry main business income and profit total growth has been rendering fluctuations down of trend, liabilities and should accounts receivable paragraph growth is continuous obviously growth; debt risk high enterprises, industry business lever ratio value from 2011 of 69.1% surge to 2015 of 130%, Significant decline in profit margins and the accounts receivable turnover ratio; bottlenecks and development boards, and so on.
Current industry enterprises are active in varying degrees and the transformation and upgrading in order to respond to market changes. Association will initiate play, pool industry demands, industry development strategy research, and Member Services for the Government. Association has launched a preferential taxation policy research and technology innovation programme planning work center.
4. looking ahead
Based on the above analysis and in 2017, machine tool consumption market and industry trend is expected to remain in the downlink interval, decline narrowed, but repeated challenges may be at the bottom.